Ancy Joseph

2011 has been a year of changes for Myanmar. In March 2011, the State Peace and Development Council formally handed over power to the new government, headed by President Thein Sein, who was previously prime minister in junta regime. Under the leadership of Thein Sein, the newly formed semi –civilianized government carried out reforms which may chart a new course for Myanmar in the coming years. The changes are not very dramatic and have emerged gradually because of internal power struggle between reform-minded and hardliners.

Changes

In the inaugural presidential address to the nation on 31 March 2011, Thein Sien read out his reform agenda wherein he made clear his goal to build a modern and democratic nation.

Thereafter, a series of concrete steps have been taken, to implement the president’s reform agenda aimed at boosting the economy, reforming the national politics and improving the human rights.

• Government opened lines of communication with Aung San Suu Kyi. She is now able to meet foreign visitors, journalists, Myanmarese supporters, communicate with outside world and travel outside Yangon. She met government officials. She also met the president at his residence on Aug 19, 2011.

• Myanmar’s government has proposed a cease fire agreement with five ethnic armies “trying to look for a solution for permanent peace”. The peace talks included Shan State Army- South, Kachin Independence Organisation, Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party and the Chin National Front. The government had decided on one to one meetings with each ethnic group rather than meet them collectively. The talks that followed were said to be a delicate ‘confidence building measure’.[1] On 3 Dec 2011, the Myanmar government signed a ceasefire agreement at state level with the Shan State Army-South (SSA-South), one of the major ethnic militias in Myanmar's restive border regions, while its military operations show no sign of abating in Kachin State. [2]

· The government has set up a new commission to investigate human rights violations by the Tatmadaw (Myanmarese military) in areas controlled by the ethnic minority insurgent groups. It consists mainly of retired government officials, ex-diplomats and academics with some them from ethnic and religious minorities.

• The Press Scrutiny and Registration Division (PSRD) liberalized the censorship rules allowing stories on sports, entertainment, technology, health and children’s literature to be published without prior approval. The Government has unblocked many international news sites such as the BBC, Democratic Voice of Burma, Radio Free Asia and the voice of America. Internet controls have been relaxed. The censorship on the local press has been considerably liberalized. Journalists from the privately owned, non-government press have been allowed to attend parliamentary debates and report on them. The government now also sees wider media coverage as a means of gaining greater domestic and international recognition of, and support for its policies. After more than two decades an article of Aung San Suu Kyi was published in the local media in September 2011. Even an interview with her was published in a local weekly.

· A commission had been established to review existing laws. Over the previous months, committees had reviewed hundreds of laws, taking advice from international organisations such as the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, as well as from local non-governmental organisations. A major reform came in October, when new legislation was passed allowing labour unions and also giving them the right to strike. The ILO said the new labour law met international standards. Workers in Myanmar will have more rights than they have enjoyed since the military takeover in 1962.

• Lower House of Parliament amended three clauses of the Political Parties Registration Law, including the clause that prevented serving and served prisoners from being a member of a political party. This move resulted in NLD re-registering as a political party beginning its formal return to mainstream politics and making way for Aung San Suu Kyi to run for the by – elections.

• In October, government released more than 200 prisoners as a part of general amnesty. The International Committee of the Red Cross was allowed to visit the prisons in Myanmar after five years and monitor the conditions of the prisoners.

• The debate in the parliament is freer as opposed to what it was when the parliament was first convened in January 2011. Significant motions such as the one on release of political prisoners were openly discussed and passed.

• Discussions were held with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for unifying the country’s foreign exchange rate policy and easing of the prevalent currency restrictions. A National Level workshop on Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation, a joint workshop with UN on revitalizing Myanmar’s rice economy, a National workshop on Reforms for Economic Development of Myanmar was held for which Aung San Suu Kyi was invited. She attended the workshop and interacted with a host of officials and other invitees. Such open discussion on the country’s economy was a rarity till recently.

International companies have stepped up deals in Myanmar. Italian-Thai Development Pcl, Thailand’s biggest construction company, signed a contract worth $8.6 billion to build a deep-sea port and industrial park. India approved plans for ONGC and GAIL India Ltd. to invest $1.3 billion in a natural gas project.[3]

• The government decided to cancel the construction of Myitsone dam project to be built with China’s assistance. Tremendous public opposition to the project, which planned to send most of its power to China but has already displaced tens of thousands people, forced the regime to choose between legitimacy in the people’s eyes and friendship with China. Ties with China have strained since the Myanmar government decision to suspend the construction of dam. Myanmar’s stand can be seen as a step towards limiting China’s influence.[4]

· The president has pledged active participation in international organisations including UN. Since March, a steady stream of visitors has traveled to assess the situation in Myanmar – US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joseph Yun, U.S. Senator John McCain; an EU delegation headed by Robert Cooper, the senior adviser to the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd and US Special Representative and Policy Coordinator for Burma, Derek Mitchell.

The UN Secretary-General’s special adviser on Myanmar, Vijay Nambiar visited the country twice. He interacted with government officials and Aung San Suu Kyi to assess the ground realities. UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Myanmar, Tomás Ojea Quintana made a five-day trip to the country. He met with a range of high-level officials, including the ministers for defence, home affairs, foreign affairs and labour/social welfare, the attorney-general, the chief justice, and the head of the election commission. He also met Aung San Suu Kyi, representatives of civil society and a number of political prisoners.

In a diplomatic victory, Myanmar won the bid to host the 2014 ASEAN Summit.

Aung San Suu Kyi has cautiously welcomed the political reforms. She said “there has been some progress within the past year, but not enough yet. A crucial issue is the rule of law, without which we cannot make progress in the issues of human rights, the release of political prisoners, domestic peace efforts or social and economic development in our country.”[5]

Some observers are skeptical about these changes. These reforms are seen as Myanmar’s effort to gain legitimacy to the new government which consists of former military personnel and end the global isolation paving way for lifting of sanctions. The political will appears to exist to bring fundamental change, but success will require much more than a determined leader. Resistance can be expected from hardliners in the power structure and spoilers with a vested interest in the status quo. Weak technical and institutional capacities also impose serious constraints on a country emerging from decades of isolation and authoritarianism.[6] There are many fundamental steps to be taken- including healing of deep ethnic divisions, cessation of armed conflicts, release of remaining political prisoners, and restoration of basic civil liberties.

Solving the countries ethnic minority issues will take more just a few meetings. Distrust between military and ethnic groups run very deep. Many analysts believe some of the ethnic groups have little incentive to reach a deal. Some control large swathes of territory along Myanmar’s borders with Thailand and China that in turn gives them control over trade in valuable commodities as well as, in some cases, illicit drugs. Reaching a deal with the government could lead to a reduction in their autonomy – and a drop in revenues.[7]

There is some scope for optimism. The previous efforts by former PM Khin Nyut which yielded in ceasefire agreements between the military and the ethnic groups, they failed to create durable peace in the long run largely because the government was not willing to offer bigger concessions, and ignored many of the economic needs of Myanmar’s ethnic minorities, analysts say. The government may be more willing to deal this time given its clear desire to regain international legitimacy. The government is offering some economic incentives, according to people briefed on the latest meetings, including possibly the creation of industrial zones in some ethnic zones that could be magnets for foreign investment.[8]

Another reason why some kind of agreement may be possible –some of the ethnic groups are running out of time. After building up sizable armies and caches of weapons, many of the armed ethnic groups have seen their support dwindle over the years, with some now led by aging soldiers who are struggling to recruit new members.[9]

Thawing US –Myanmar Relations

A number of political developments have driven a shift in US foreign policy. Foremost is the advice and recommendations of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD). The US government has been in constant touch with Aung San Suu Kyi since she was released from house arrest and Myanmar government opened lines of communications with her. The visit of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Myanmar in Dec 2011 is widely seen as nod of approval to the reforms undertaken by the new civilianized government. She is the first high ranking US diplomat since John Foster Dulles (1955) to visit Myanmar. US – Myanmar relations are highly strained due to the latter’s abominable human rights record.

Seen as “an outpost of tyranny”[10] Myanmar has come a long way since the much touted elections in 2010. The US and the other Western countries were skeptical of the elections which brought an end to junta rule in Myanmar and put in place a civilianized government. The main contentions of US wariness were the house arrest and exclusion of Aung San Suu Kyi from running the elections, continuing imprisonment of political dissidents whom the UN calls ‘prisoners of conscience’ and continuing ethnic unrest.

These reforms characterized as ‘flickers of progress’ by President Obama, come at a time when US is seeking to counter the growing influence of China across Asia. Combined with announcements that United States would station 2,500 Marines in Australia, enhance military ties with the Philippines and comments of US State Secretary Hillary Clinton “one of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in substantially increased investments – diplomatic, economic and strategic - in the Asia Pacific Region”[11], her visit to Myanmar sends out a clear and loud message that US is to play an active role in Asia Pacific region and Myanmar is going to be an important player in the region.

US have reciprocated the efforts of President Thein Sein by rewarding a few concessions to Myanmar. US will no longer block cooperation between Myanmar and the International Monetary Fund that could lead to the approval of much needed loans. Also, the US would support intensified UN health and microfinance programs and resume bilateral counter-narcotics efforts. US has offered Myanmar US $1.2 million in aid to support micro-finance, health care and assistance for the victims of landmines, and would also support US university and foundations to increase academic exchange collaboration in health, governance and other matters. These will be followed by an upgrade in diplomatic relations between the US and Myanmar although US officials stressed that concrete action on American concerns[12] must be completed first. The US has not had an ambassador in Myanmar since the early 1990s and is represented now by a charge d'affaires.[13]

The US is not yet ready to lift tough sanctions on the country. Removing some of those sanctions would require approval by Congress, where many lawmakers have criticized the Obama administration for rewarding Myanmar too quickly without enough evidence of change.[14]

Myanmar’s strategic importance has increased in recent years partly due to its vast natural resources and its location between India and China. Recent signs of strain in Myanmar’s relations with China would have made US realize that opportunity and space was opening up for it in Myanmar. There is concern too in the US over Myanmar’s burgeoning cooperation with North Korea, especially in the nuclear and missile field. The advent of US in Myanmar will definitely alter the equations Chinese influence in Myanmar. Myanmar is known as the client state of China. It is believed that India – US team can draw Myanmar away from Chinese stranglehold.[15]

A new chapter in US Myanmar relations will depend on whether Thein Sein’s government takes additional steps to open up the country’s politics, release political prisoners and end the violent repression of minority ethnic groups in some of the world’s longest civil conflicts. The outcome of Clinton’s will be closely watched by a number of governments across the world and could lead to similar visits of such high level diplomats provided the desired outcomes entail. This could lead to further international engagement and much further concessions.